China is widely expected to adopt a range of pronatalist policies in a bid to raise birth rates. But recent efforts to encourage women to have more babies will have short-lived effects, while coercive measures – such as bans on contraception and abortion – would trigger a public backlash and prove futile at best.

Dec 3, 2025
Yi Fuxian

MADISON – When China implemented its one-child policy in 1980, it also raised the barriers to marriage and made divorce easier. Later, in 1991, the government introduced the “one-vote veto” system, which linked party cadres’ promotion to meeting population-control goals. These moves, coupled with coercive measures such as forced abortions and enormous fines for having more than one child, efficiently contributed to the rapid decline of the fertility rate from 2.3 in 1990 to 1.22 in 2000.

That trend has proven difficult to reverse. Now with one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, China is widely expected to adopt a range of pronatalist policies in a bid to escape this trap. The country does seem to be moving in this direction. In May, to facilitate marriage, China allowed couples to wed anywhere in the country, as opposed to their place of residence. So far, it seems to be working: the policy change immediately produced a 22.5% year-on-year increase in marriages in the third quarter of 2025.

Continued: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-births-rebound-will-be-temporary-ban-abortion-contraception-unlikely-by-yi-fuxian-2025-12