July 8, 2026
The University of Barcelona participated in a study that uses an unexpected change of government in Spain —the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, (PSOE) defeated the PP, against the odds, in the March 2004 general election — to examine whether changes in economic expectations had affected births, abortions and marriages.
The study shows that the electoral surprise — all the polls had predicted a PP victory — had an asymmetric impact on expectations. While supporters of the winning party (PSOE) became more optimistic about the economy, confidence among supporters of the losing party (the PP) declined sharply. This abrupt change had immediate demographic consequences: in the months following the election, municipalities with the strongest support for the PP saw a decline in pregnancies, a temporary but significant rise in abortions and a decrease in marriages.
Continued: https://web.ub.edu/en/web/actualitat/w/political-polarization-fertility-marriages